Building toward the axioms

Selected work

Supply Chain RL Environment

I built SupplyChainBench, an RL environment and benchmark designed to test whether LLMs can learn to make better decisions when the consequences of their actions only become visible several steps later. Using the Beer Distribution Game, models must forecast demand, account for orders already in the pipeline, and make decisions whose effects unfold over several weeks. On 16 held-out stochastic benchmark seeds, Qwen3.5-4B scored 38.42 with a GRPO + LoRA adapter versus 11.78 untrained—a 3.3× improvement. The adapter was trained on the earlier environment and evaluated on the stochastic version without retraining.

Read report Play the environment GitHub

RAID: Retrieval-Augmented World Models

A cross-attention mechanism that infers robot actions from world-model state transitions, retrieving the closest demonstrations from memory. Cuts action-prediction error 6.5x over a direct MLP baseline on LIBERO-Spatial using just 25 demos, then fine-tuned with GRPO reinforcement learning.

Read paper Project page GitHub

Fincast

AI-assisted valuation for public equities. Enter a ticker, pick DCF or an exit multiple, and get five-year projections, a fair value, and upside to the current price.

Open live GitHub

Ideas

Faith Agape When everything I used to measure myself by collapsed, I was left with the only thing that actually matters: unconditional love, or agape. Scale Economics Netflix: The Costco of Entertainment Netflix's scale lets it spread largely fixed global content costs across more than 325 million memberships, fund a broader content slate, keep churn unusually low, and reinvest into the same flywheel. The result increasingly looks like Costco economics applied to entertainment. Philosophy Investment Philosophy: Compounding Machines in Oligopolistic Markets A systematic framework for identifying businesses that compound capital across decades , targeting companies with dominant market positions, multiple reinforcing moats, recurring revenue, and the capital efficiency to reinvest at high rates of return.

Read all essays